How likely is it to get 10 Wins?

The Bazaar Patch Notes

In the Bazaar, there are multiple goals you can have.

In normal mode, your only goal is to reach 10 wins.

Both 4+ and 7+ Wins are also essential for the ranked mode.

That’s why this article shows the likelihood of getting those numbers.

Thanks to Paruko for the information (Source)

Distribution of Runs by Wins

The results from the simulation paint a clearer picture of win distributions.

Only 10% of runs achieved gold, while a huge 66% of matches ended at bronze or below. Additionally, around 60% of the runs that made it to 10 wins did so with merely 1 prestige point remaining, illustrating just how critical decision-making and board strength are in achieving significant wins. These findings suggest that identifying solid gameplay strategies dramatically enhances your chances of success.

Wins % of Runs Breakdown
0 0.68% unfortunate run
1 3.51%
2 7.36%
3 11.98% 23.53%
4 14.63% bronze run
5 14.73%
6 13.14% 42.51%
7 10.58% silver run
8 7.89%
9 5.56% 24.03%
10 9.93% gold run, 9.93%
Distribution of Runs by Wins

Important Details / Assumptions

We do assume that you will have a 50% rate, but remember, this is not a strict rule. The game is designed to be fair and in the player’s favor, so your win rate may vary.

Remember, ties are counted as player wins. Players have the power to strategically incorporate items against an expected matchup, which can significantly influence the game. Plus, there are temporary buffs that can benefit the player for the day.

Assumptions:

  • All players have equal levels of skill and knowledge
  • It is equally likely to face a matchup you counter and to face a matchup that counters you
  • It is equally likely to face a board that is stronger or weaker than your board
  • All these assumptions taken into account lead to PvP matches becoming 50/50 on average
  • No genie